What Will Happen as a Result of the 2009 Swine Influenza outbreak

It is too early to say what will happen as a result of the 2009 swine influenza outbreak. If mortality from the disease (the case-fatality rate) is low or the disease is less widespread than anticipated, the impact could be modest.

If the case-fatality rate turns out to be high and the disease is readily transmitted between individuals, the World Health Organization and the CDC will proceed with the measures established by their pandemic preparedness plans.

Even if a serious pandemic should occur, we will likely fare better than we did in 1918. This is because, in contrast to the 1918 pandemic, we have effective medicines to treat swine influenza and the prospect of an effective vaccine.

 Furthermore, public-health efforts successfully eliminated one major pandemic threat (SARS) only a few years ago, providing us with experience on how to handle infectious threats.

Although avian influenza never caused a human pandemic, the threat of avian flu caused most organizations and cities to develop pandemic preparedness plans that are ready to be put into action if swine influenza should worsen. Thus, it is a time for caution, not for panic.